If your inbound freight costs have crept up this year, you're not imagining it. Three separate forces are compounding at once, and understanding them is the first step to planning for them.
Amazon's new inbound network is thinning out shipment density
Amazon has rolled out a new layer in its inbound network: Regional Distribution Centers (RDCs), purpose-built for slower-moving, longer-dwell-time inventory. There are 11 RDCs live as of now, and they represent a genuine structural change, not just a tweak, to how inbound freight gets routed ahead of peak.
The catch is density. Every time Amazon adds a new node to the network, freight that used to consolidate into fewer, fuller trucks now spreads across more destinations. Lower density per shipment means carriers can't fill trailers as efficiently, and that inefficiency shows up as higher per-unit transportation cost. This isn't a one-quarter blip; it's a network redesign, and brands should expect the ripple effects to continue through the rest of 2026.
Fuel costs are finally landing on invoices
Fuel prices have been rising for a while, but many carriers absorbed the increase rather than passing it straight through. That's changing. Carriers are now actively adjusting fuel surcharges and fuel-related service costs to reflect real-world prices at the pump, which flows directly into transportation line items.
For brands, this means a cost that felt background-level for months is now showing up front and center in freight quotes, compounding with the density problem above rather than happening in isolation.
Dry van rates are up 30% year-over-year
Put a number on it: dry van truck rates are up 30% year-over-year, and the expectation is that they will keep climbing through Q4. That's a significant swing for any brand budgeting freight as a fixed cost, and it's happening at the exact moment inbound networks are getting more complex.
Combine that with West Coast facilities running at unusually high inventory levels (pushing more freight to travel farther distances across the country), and you get a transportation market where cost pressure is coming from multiple directions simultaneously, not a single, isolated spike.
What this means for your peak planning
None of these three drivers are temporary noise. A new inbound network, real fuel pass-through, and a documented 30% rate increase are structural, not seasonal. Brands that treat this as "wait it out" risk being caught flat-footed heading into Q4.
The brands that come out ahead will be the ones adjusting now: reassessing weeks of supply, revisiting inbound strategy, and building freight cost assumptions around this new baseline rather than last year's numbers.
Navigating a shifting inbound network doesn't have to mean navigating it alone. Pattern's fulfillment and logistics experts help brands adapt sourcing, inventory, and freight strategy to exactly this kind of market shift. talk to our team about what it means for your Q4.
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